Bank of Canada saw modest growth and easing inflation pressure before October decision

Bank of Canada policymakers entered their October interest-rate decision seeing stronger-than-expected global activity but a Canadian economy still constrained by trade tensions, according to a deliberations summary published November 10.

The Governing Council’s discussions began October 20 ahead of the October 28 decision. Members assessed Canadian real GDP growth at 3.3 per cent in the second quarter and roughly 2 per cent in the third, while expecting trade disruptions to weigh on the fourth quarter.

The Bank’s projection put annual growth near 1 per cent in 2026 and about 2 per cent in both 2027 and 2028. Policymakers also noted that total inflation had been close to 3 per cent since April, partly because of energy prices, while measures of underlying inflation were nearer 2 per cent.

The summary says members expected some later pass-through from tariffs and supply-chain costs, but they did not see evidence that inflation expectations had become unanchored. The document explains the considerations behind the decision; it is not a forecast guarantee or investment recommendation.

Illustrative stock photo: Photo by Isaac Smith on Unsplash. Cropped/resized for publication; the chart is illustrative and does not reproduce Bank of Canada data.

Source

• Bank of Canada: Summary of Governing Council deliberations, published November 10, 2026.