Tesla’s first-quarter earnings report for 2025 is shaping up to be among its most closely watched in recent memory—but perhaps not entirely for favorable reasons.
The automaker has faced significant challenges this year, notably due to CEO Elon Musk’s increased involvement in right-wing political affairs and his prominent role leading DOGE, the presidential advisory committee authorized by President Trump to cut federal spending. These developments have coincided with sharp declines in Tesla’s share price and global vehicle sales, compounded by intensifying pressure from competitors in key markets including China, Europe, and North America.
According to Morgan Stanley analyst and Tesla bull Adam Jonas, the automaker currently faces its lowest profit margin expectations in more than a decade. Investors will closely evaluate Tesla’s explanations for having lower margins than even Volkswagen—and operating at an anticipated cash burn—and assess the company’s progress in its autonomous driving initiatives. Analysts surveyed expect Tesla’s quarterly revenue at approximately $21.41 billion, flat compared to the same quarter last year and notably down from the $25.7 billion reported in the previous quarter.
The earnings call, scheduled for 5:30 pm Eastern Time, will be pivotal. Observers will closely watch the company’s updated guidance on electric vehicle (EV) sales. After reporting only 336,681 vehicle deliveries in Q1—its weakest quarterly result in over two years—Tesla’s management needs to clarify whether it still anticipates a rebound in automotive growth for 2025.
While Tesla retains competitive advantages, like significant vertically integrated production and domestic supply chains, U.S.-China political tensions amplified by Musk’s alignment with Trump may further harm Chinese sales. Rival BYD appears ready to capitalize on potential customer resentment abroad in response to Tesla’s current image.
Market watchers are also anticipating any updates from Tesla regarding its previously announced affordable EV. Conflicting reports indicate either delays of several months or potentially a shift away from the project entirely, leaving analysts eager for clarity.
Another major storyline revolves around Tesla’s ambitious robotaxi plans. Musk previously announced that the company would roll out a paid autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas as soon as June this year. He indicated the initial robotaxi deployments would utilize Model 3 and Model Y vehicles equipped with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability, rather than the earlier unveiled steering wheel-less and pedal-less Cybercab. Analysts and investors alike will listen intently for concrete market-entry details, specifics on operational territories, and any further rollout plans—for Texas and potentially beyond, including the California market.
Relatedly, sustained uncertainty surrounds Tesla’s futuristic Cybercab development. Regulatory hurdles around mass-producing vehicles without manual controls currently present challenges, though Musk often bypasses obstacles through aggressive advocacy. Clarifications regarding timelines and production ambitions for this autonomous prototype are anticipated.
Additionally, investors hope for new information on Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robotics project. Musk previously predicted these robots will begin performing repetitive assembly line tasks internally sometime this year. Market observers expect updates on Optimus’ implementation timeline, full-scale production plans, and initial benchmarks for robot deployments within Tesla factories.
Tesla watchers also remain curious about the automaker’s powerful AI systems, namely Dojo and Cortex. Recently, Tesla has focused communications mainly around Cortex—a new AI training supercluster under construction near Tesla’s Austin headquarters—to accelerate the development of its real-world artificial intelligence applications. Meanwhile, the previously touted Dojo supercomputer has received markedly less attention since mid-2024. Investors will closely follow any announcements regarding progression with these crucial AI projects.
Amid all this, perhaps the most pressing issue for Tesla observers involves Musk’s dedication to the automaker itself. Analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities described the situation surrounding Musk’s priorities as a “Code Red,” urging the CEO to distance himself urgently from divisive political activities tied to DOGE advisory responsibilities. Investors will keenly await any signs from Musk or Tesla executives suggesting a return of full focus to operational matters, free of distractions that could further alienate potential buyers and compromise Tesla’s core business.
