Nvidia’s $8 Billion Mystery: The Hidden Impact of U.S. Licensing Rules on AI Chip Exports to China

Nvidia announced it expects a multi-billion-dollar revenue impact due to recent U.S. licensing rules affecting the export of its advanced AI chips to China. In its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report, which covered through April 28, Nvidia disclosed a $4.5 billion financial charge resulting from these newly introduced licensing requirements. The company also noted it failed to ship an additional $2.5 billion worth of H20 AI chips during the quarter specifically because of these export restrictions.

Initially, when the Trump administration unveiled the licensing rules in April, Nvidia had forecasted the related charges at about $5.5 billion for the first quarter. Furthermore, the company now anticipates an even larger negative impact—approximately $8 billion—for its upcoming second quarter, with projected quarterly revenues around $45 billion.

Nvidia has been vocal in challenging the Trump administration’s restrictions on exporting American-made artificial intelligence technology, particularly those targeting the Chinese market. While CEO Jensen Huang publicly applauded the administration’s recent decision to withdraw former President Biden’s proposed Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule—which would have introduced further chip export controls—these current limitations show that Nvidia remains adversely affected despite this partial regulatory rollback.

Even though the stricter Biden-era regulations did not go into effect, Nvidia is clearly still vulnerable to American governmental efforts aimed at reducing China’s capabilities in artificial intelligence. The full scope and implications of these ongoing policy measures on Nvidia remain to be seen.

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