Unveiling the Secret Strategy: Only a Few Companies Will Escape the Looming Bitcoin “Death Spiral”

Nearly 200 companies are now collectively holding over 3 million bitcoins, totaling about $315 billion at current market prices. Yet, a recent report warns that not all bitcoin-holding firms will successfully evade a “death spiral” risk, with only a select few likely to thrive amid increasing market volatility.

As of May 2025, around 199 organizations possess approximately 3.01 million bitcoins collectively. Out of these, 147 public and private companies own a combined 1.1 million BTC, worth roughly $115 billion. This trend is rapidly accelerating—since early 2024 alone, the bitcoin holdings of these corporate entities have more than doubled.

However, analysts emphasize that success in this sector depends on specialized strategies to achieve sustained market premiums relative to underlying assets. The key metric identified by the report is what is called a Multiple on Net Asset Value (MNAV), reflecting the premium investors are willing to pay above the bitcoin’s book value. To command this premium consistently, firms must convincingly demonstrate that their management teams can increase their holdings per share faster and more effectively than investors could on their own by simply purchasing bitcoin.

One company spotlighted for its success in this area is Strategy, currently holding around 580,000 BTC—more than half of the corporate-owned coins—with its stake valued around $60 billion. Despite this substantial bitcoin portfolio, Strategy’s market capitalization stands notably higher at approximately $104 billion, a premium (MNAV) of roughly 1.7 times the value of its bitcoin holdings on paper. Strategy historically reached an MNAV of around two times its net assets due to strategic management practices.

The analysts highlight several methods Strategy has pioneeringly adopted. These include issuing convertible bonds that only dilute stockholders if share prices rise significantly, systematically executing share issuance programs to raise capital when stock prices exceed MNAV, dollar-cost averaging into accumulating more bitcoin, and consistently reinvesting free cash flow from their core businesses directly into additional bitcoin purchases.

Newer corporate competitors are now applying similar but varied strategies. Novel approaches some are utilizing include facilitating direct swaps of bitcoins for company shares to defer capital gains taxation, acquiring undervalued businesses to convert their assets into bitcoin, pursuing distressed bitcoin-related legal claims, and creatively raising capital via private investment (PIPE) deals to maintain financial flexibility.

This corporate race to accumulate bitcoin has drawn a diverse group of firms worldwide. In 2025 alone, over 40 companies unveiled new bitcoin treasury strategies, collectively raising billions of dollars. International players like Japan’s Metaplanet are tapping into favorable financial conditions in their markets, while U.S.-based companies such as Semler Scientific and GameStop have sharply shifted their treasury policies towards bitcoin accumulation. Specialized firms like Twenty One Capital—which counts industry giants like Tether and Cantor among its supporters—have also entered this crowded field.

Yet, despite the momentum and bullish projections, Breed.VC’s recent report warns the industry’s optimism must recognize significant underlying risks. The report underscores the potential danger of an extended bear market, akin to what Strategy experienced in the crypto downturn of 2022-23, when bitcoin prices collapsed by approximately 80%, market premiums vanished, and sources of new financing dried up significantly. Although Strategy weathered that crisis, analysts stress that weaker and newer bitcoin-holding enterprises may face catastrophic circumstances due to heavy debt loads and limited funding options. A prolonged downturn could force firms to liquidate their bitcoin holdings to service debt obligations, potentially initiating a spiral of forced selling and market contagion.

If such events unfold, analysts predict that robust firms like Strategy or other established names may step in as consolidators, acquiring distressed competitors at significantly reduced valuations. Breed.VC stresses that, while overall contagion risk across the market remains muted given most firms’ predominantly equity-based financing structures, entities overly reliant on debt financing still pose considerable systemic risks should they fail under stress.

The report anticipates this model will quickly expand beyond bitcoin, predicting rapid proliferation into other cryptocurrencies. Entities such as DeFi Development Corp, already holding sizable allocations in other assets like Solana, and SharpLink Gaming, backed financially by prominent figures in the Ethereum ecosystem, represent burgeoning examples of this diversification. However, analysts caution investors that success stories will be limited. Only companies effectively leveraging disciplined execution, unique strategies, brand strength, and conservative capital management are projected to sustain lasting share-price premiums.

In essence, corporate bitcoin holders are increasingly evolving beyond mere custodians of digital assets. They are becoming specialized entities whose survival depends heavily on executives’ reputations, market acumen, strategic creativity, and disciplined management to consistently outperform direct asset ownership.

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