Ethereum’s recent bullish momentum is showing signs of weakening, driven by a substantial uptick in exchange inflows and declining derivatives market activity.
An estimated 100,000 ETH, valued around $250 million, were deposited into Binance in two large movements, raising concerns that increased exchange reserves might trigger selling pressure if investors begin to shift toward bearish sentiment.
Technical data highlights a growing divergence between Ethereum’s spot price and open interest figures on Binance. Although spot markets have experienced consistent buying since June 26, pushing Ethereum to surpass $2,500 multiple times, open interest on Binance has steadily declined, registering sequential lower peaks below $5.6 billion. This trend implies diminishing interest in new positions, pointing toward increased caution among derivatives traders.
The tightening liquidity conditions, impacted by the ongoing reduction in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s net liquidity—which has fallen from roughly $6.2 trillion down to $5.84 trillion—are adding further layers of uncertainty. Historically, lower liquidity environments discourage risk-taking, constraining market participation in both traditional financial and cryptocurrency markets alike.
Currently, Ethereum trades at approximately $2,451, marking around a 0.5% decline over the past 24 hours. This price places it notably close to immediate resistance at $2,455, defined by the 20-day simple moving average and reinforced through recent market activity.
Other technical indicators are signaling mixed short-term outlooks. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), sitting at 48.9, indicates a period of consolidation without any decisive directional shift. The Stochastic RSI is approaching the overbought zone, implying limited upside potential in the very short term. However, the MACD and momentum indicators offer slight hints of a continued upward movement.
In a broader view, Ethereum remains below several key moving averages, reflecting general bearishness. Short-term exponential moving averages (10-day and 50-day) are struggling to provide meaningful support. Should Ethereum manage to clearly break the $2,500 threshold with increased volume and stronger open interest, its next target could potentially reach the upper Bollinger Band region around $2,622.
If buying support continues to falter amid sustained high exchange inflows, the possibility of a retracement increases significantly, potentially pushing Ethereum toward the lower Bollinger Band near $2,287—and raising concerns of a more extended price correction.
