In a recent conversation, Bitunix analyst Dean Chen outlined his insights into how significant macroeconomic data and policy scenarios in the U.S. could shape the direction of Bitcoin (BTC) and digital asset markets in the near future.
Chen pointed out that with U.S. private payroll numbers significantly underperforming expectations—rising by just 37,000 jobs in May compared to the anticipated 110,000—the economic outlook raises questions about the Federal Reserve’s future policy actions. These disappointing labor market statistics, alongside renewed pressure from former President Donald Trump advocating immediate Fed rate cuts, create conflicting sentiments. On the one hand, weaker economic data could fuel hopes that the Fed might pivot earlier toward rate reductions, thus driving heightened optimism and liquidity-driven gains for Bitcoin. On the other hand, excessively poor economic indicators might reinforce recession fears, prompting investors to prioritize safer assets, potentially dampening enthusiasm for riskier ones like cryptocurrencies.
Looking at Bitcoin’s historical performance during recessions, Chen explained that BTC has so far mirrored the behavior of high-risk speculative assets rather than fulfilling the role of “digital gold” or as a reliable hedge against inflation. Despite the prevailing narrative among many crypto advocates, the 2022 downturn offered a clear illustration of Bitcoin shedding value and declining sharply amid recession fears and escalating inflation. According to Chen, Bitcoin’s pricing trajectory has been closely tethered to global liquidity, investor risk appetite, and overall economic health. Until Bitcoin proves itself resilient in recessionary environments, investors are likely to stick with the pattern of turning to traditional safe-havens.
When pressed on optimistic price forecasts for Bitcoin—some market participants predict it reaching upwards of $200,000 by the end of this year—Chen urged caution. He stressed that several key fundamentals would require alignment to justify such ambitious valuations. Institutional influx into spot Bitcoin ETFs, an accommodative monetary policy pivot from central banks across developed markets, and continued strong demand against Bitcoin’s post-halving supply reduction would all have to converge. Furthermore, a favorable macroeconomic environment characterized by controlled inflationary pressures and moderate economic expansion without severe recession would greatly bolster Bitcoin’s price prospects.
Addressing Ethereum’s underperformance in this current cycle, Chen explained that Ethereum’s price continues to trail significantly behind Bitcoin partly due to the network’s shift from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake and uncertainties surrounding regulatory classification of ETH. The post-Merge era has led large volumes of ETH to be staked, reducing circulating supply and limiting short-term speculative price moves. Regulatory clarity, or the lack thereof, especially in relation to whether ETH may be deemed a security, creates hesitation among institutional players. Additionally, the growth of competing Layer 1 networks like Solana and Avalanche and Layer 2 scaling solutions has impacted Ethereum’s dominance by drawing away users and developer activity. Despite these factors, Chen remains confident in Ethereum’s long-term prospects, citing ongoing improvements to scalability, lower transaction costs on Layer 2, and the network’s entrenched dominance in key sectors such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFTs.
Chen stated plainly that recent momentum in Bitcoin prices has largely been institutionally-driven through vehicles like ETFs, rather than fueled primarily by retail investors. He believes that institutional adoption is nearing an inflection point, potentially changing the crypto market structure permanently by providing greater legitimacy, stability, and sustained capital flow. On the question of choosing direct Bitcoin ownership versus ETF exposure, he observed that direct asset ownership offers autonomy and utility on-chain but requires more risk management around self-custody and security. Conversely, ETFs provide convenience, clarity around regulation, lower operational complexity, but fewer benefits related to decentralization and direct blockchain engagement.
As for regulatory developments, Chen expressed cautious optimism. Recent legislative activity in Washington, including the introduction of the bipartisan Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, and new SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ commitment to transparent rulemaking, point toward much-needed policy clarity for the crypto industry. At firms like Bitunix, clearer rules would foster growth, innovation, and trust in both platforms and the broader digital asset ecosystem. Nevertheless, Chen emphasized that until such policy developments are fully realized and implemented, cautious optimism should prevail rather than outright exuberance.
Discussing stablecoins, Chen highlighted the growing recognition of stablecoins as foundational infrastructure for both crypto and traditional financial markets. Circle’s recent IPO announcement demonstrates mainstream validation and acknowledges the inevitability of regulated stablecoin providers entering conventional markets. Moreover, the imminent launch of Wyoming’s state-backed stablecoin signals a shift toward government recognition of stablecoin legitimacy. Chen believes central-bank-linked stablecoins could pressure private sector players like Circle’s USDC and Tether (USDT). While sovereign digital currencies may have inherent trust advantages, private stablecoin issuers can retain competitiveness by enhancing transparency in their reserve backing and delivering innovative blockchain-specific financial services. Chen noted that Tether specifically will face rising scrutiny on transparency issues, but emphasized that it may prevail if it continues adapting to tightening regulations.
