Ethereum’s recent rally has slowed over the past two weeks, but traders on Polymarket and technical indicators suggest further gains may be ahead.
Ether (ETH) was trading near $2,550 on Saturday, slightly below its monthly high of $2,735. Despite the recent pullback, Ethereum has surged approximately 85% from its lows earlier this year.
Polymarket traders are increasingly optimistic, with growing expectations that ETH could reach $4,000 during 2025. Current market sentiment on the prediction platform puts the probability of ETH hitting this price target at around 40%, a notable increase from last month’s low of just 16%. These odds represent the highest point since early March. Should Ethereum hit the $4,000 mark, it would represent a roughly 60% increase from current levels.
Additionally, the market places a 25% chance on Ethereum crossing $5,000 and a 17% chance of reaching $6,000. Conversely, the probability that ETH could decline significantly back to $1,000 has dropped to about 16%.
Recent improvements in Ethereum’s network fundamentals lend support to this bullish outlook. Data from Nansen shows a significant uptick in on-chain activity, with transaction volumes rising by approximately 35% over the past month to reach 39 million. Active addresses on the network have also edged higher by nearly half a percent to total 6.7 million.
Furthermore, institutional inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs have accelerated in recent weeks. Just this past week, Ethereum ETFs experienced asset inflows exceeding $238 million, bringing their total holdings to $2.76 billion. Among the leading products, BlackRock’s ETHA currently holds about $3.4 billion, while Grayscale’s ETHE and ETH vehicles are managing assets worth $2.9 billion and $1.28 billion, respectively.
Technical analysis supports the bullish stance as well. Earlier this month, Ethereum’s chart formed a “golden cross,” a bullish signal occurring when the 50-day and 200-day Arnaud Legoux Moving Averages intersect. Additionally, ETH appears to have set up a bullish flag pattern on the daily timeframe. The sharp rise earlier this month which peaked at the $2,736 mark—a key level corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—is now giving way to a consolidation phase indicative of a bullish flag.
Should ETH break out above the key resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement point near $2,736, technicians suggest that the next target could lie at $3,052, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Surpassing this level would set a strong technical foundation for the anticipated run toward the widely eyed $4,000 price mark.
