Bitcoin and Ethereum could be gearing up for another upward rally amidst a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, according to Bitfinex analyst Jag Kooner.
In a recent analysis, Kooner, the Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, highlighted that despite recent market volatility, broader economic conditions are aligning positively for major cryptocurrencies. He pinpointed two key macroeconomic factors traders should closely watch: guidance from the U.S. Federal Reserve and upcoming consumer spending data.
Currently, the Fed faces pressure related to possible inflationary impacts stemming from tariff measures. Against this backdrop, Kooner projects that interest rates will likely remain unchanged if the Fed remains wary of inflation risks. In parallel, he emphasized that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—an influential gauge of inflation—may exert greater immediate influence on U.S. dollar movements.
“The core PCE data, due Friday, will be the week’s major deciding macro event,” Kooner stated. “Markets are expecting stability, but any downbeat surprise—such as a reading below 2.6% year-on-year—could lead to lower real yields and a weaker dollar, pushing investors to redirect their capital into cryptocurrency markets.”
In such an environment, Bitcoin (BTC) naturally emerges as an appealing safe-haven asset. Kooner noted robust institutional participation, pointing out that Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds experienced net inflows of approximately $1 billion over the week ending Sunday, May 25.
Additionally, he indicated that Ethereum (ETH) might be poised to lead an upcoming rally among altcoins, given its recent recovery of 6% against Bitcoin from local lows. Kooner underscored that this uptick is primarily driven by institutional demand rather than retail buyers.
“We may well be witnessing the nascent stages of Phase 3 of the crypto bull market—a stage characterized by Bitcoin price stabilization, Ethereum’s acceleration, and selective participation from altcoin markets,” he suggested.
Ultimately, the timing and scale of any prospective rally depend significantly on forthcoming macroeconomic information. Kooner concluded that cryptocurrency markets aren’t currently overextended; rather, they’re under-allocated, suggesting ample room for growth should macro conditions encourage further inflows.
