Bitcoin surged to a fresh all-time high this week, surpassing its previous record in USD and USDT markets and topping out at $111,880. Despite this significant milestone, excitement among crypto derivatives traders appears unusually subdued compared to the exuberance typically seen in previous bull cycles.
Analysts attribute Bitcoin’s current rally primarily to solid activity in spot markets rather than speculative trading. According to data from leading analytics providers, including 10xResearch and Amberdata, there has been an uptick in derivatives activity but without the excessive optimism normally observed at similar price peaks. The long-to-short ratio across leading derivatives exchanges remained just above 1, signaling cautious optimism rather than outright bullish frenzy. Typically, during intense bull runs—such as those of 2017 and 2020—this ratio has approached or exceeded 2.
As Bitcoin surged, derivatives traders saw $175 million in short positions liquidated while $47 million in longs were closed, highlighting punitive costs for traders betting against Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures has skyrocketed, crossing a total of $78 billion as of May 22. Analysts consider rising open interest alongside a positive funding rate, consistent over recent weeks, as strong indicators signaling traders’ optimistic expectations for further Bitcoin gains.
In contrast, Ethereum’s derivatives market has demonstrated more caution. Despite rallying alongside Bitcoin and trading above $2,600, Ethereum has struggled to attract increased institutional inflows. Open interest growth for Ethereum futures remains comparatively muted and significantly below early-2025 levels. Although ETH’s options volume surged nearly 60%, long-to-short ratios stayed below 1, reflecting a lack of clear direction from traders. Recent liquidation data further underscores this uncertainty, with near-equal amounts of both long and short liquidations exceeding $60 million.
On the technical side, Ethereum established solid support at approximately $2,415, and current indicators point toward potential progression towards resistance levels closer to $3,000. Ultimately, the longer-term technical outlook targets a previous all-time high near $4,878, though the altcoin first faces notable resistance at $4,578.
Trader sentiment data also supports the picture of restrained enthusiasm. The crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 73, a level that, while indicating greed, is markedly lower than the deep “extreme greed” territory observed during peak cycles. This sentiment suggests traders may expect more potential upside ahead rather than signaling market exhaustion.
Analysts have mapped out specific technical price targets as Bitcoin proceeds into price discovery. In the short term, the significant resistance at $122,000 aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement from Bitcoin’s recent rally that began April 7. A successful breach of this resistance could position Bitcoin to test the next major target near $127,352, a 141.4% Fibonacci extension. Industry analysts from Bernstein recently projected Bitcoin reaching as high as $200,000 during 2025, reinforcing the outlook for possible significant additional upside.
Experts from Hyblock Capital highlighted key Bitcoin support levels situated between $101,000 and $102,500, citing substantial open-interest activities in these price ranges. Analysts from Bitfinex also noted substantial liquidity barriers and high options open interest between the $114,000-$118,000 and $123,000-$125,000 price zones, likely key areas of trader focus in coming sessions.
For now, the market’s cautious trading sentiment, alongside technical indicators and supportive derivatives data, provides reasonable grounds for analysts’ optimism regarding further gains in Bitcoin prices. While subdued euphoria contrasts with previous highs, this reserved market reaction might indicate that the current rally has room to run before eventually topping out.
