Donald Trump has positioned substantial tax cuts as a defining pillar of his presidential legacy, following a strategy similar to previous presidents who championed landmark legislation. Just as Barack Obama had the Affordable Care Act and Joe Biden the Inflation Reduction Act, Trump’s signature policy achievement—the recently passed multi-trillion dollar tax legislation—is likely to define both his presidency and the coming political contests.
Trump secured near-unanimous Republican support on the controversial legislative package by employing a familiar branding strategy. Calling it the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” he leveraged both persuasion and forceful tactics to unify Republican lawmakers behind the sweeping measure, despite internal concerns over some contentious aspects of the bill.
For Trump, however, potential political fallout looms on the horizon during the 2026 midterms. Democrats have already signaled their intention to shape campaign narratives around one central message: the Republican administration prioritizing tax cuts benefiting the wealthy while cutting healthcare for economically disadvantaged Americans.
Although Trump’s allies maintain that deserving recipients will retain their healthcare, independent analyses suggest otherwise. Nonpartisan experts predict notable increases in the number of uninsured individuals in the coming decade due to sharp reductions in Medicaid funding. Furthermore, GOP assurances that the legislation will turbocharge economic growth will face scrutiny amid ongoing economic uncertainties and international trade tensions.
Aware of criticisms depicting the bill as favoring wealthy Americans, Trump purposely included provisions targeted at working-class voters, such as tax relief for tipped employees and overtime earners—though these groups represent only a small fraction of the total workforce. Additionally, he framed the extension of temporary income tax cuts from his first term as measures to protect everyday Americans from de facto tax increases.
Yet, to enact the costly provisions of the legislation, deep cuts were made to Medicaid and social safety net programs, contradicting Trump’s earlier pledges that entitlements like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security would remain untouched. The result has raised alarms even among some Republicans. Senator Thom Tillis publicly opposed the bill, expressing concerns over potential electoral consequences, saying it could significantly harm GOP prospects in states like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey. Ultimately, Tillis announced his intention to retire rather than seek reelection in the new political climate created by the legislation.
Similarly, Senator Lisa Murkowski voted in favor of the bill but made clear her reservations, calling for revisions that ultimately never materialized in the House. Early polling data reflects sharply negative sentiment toward the bill, not only among Democrats and independents but also among significant segments of the Republican voter base, although White House officials dismiss these findings.
History suggests that major legislative victories rarely translate into political gains during midterm elections. Obama’s Affordable Care Act fueled a massive Republican victory in the immediate midterms following its adoption, increasing its popularity only years later when Republicans attempted its repeal. Trump’s earlier tax cuts from his first term also failed to deliver sustained electoral success, as Republicans lost the House in 2018 and Trump himself was defeated in 2020.
Democrats see potential electoral opportunities in highlighting the sharp contradictions between Trump’s public promises and the tangible impacts the new legislation will have on strategic voter groups. Senator Brian Schatz argued fiercely against the bill, warning of dire real-life consequences, including hospital closures, increased mortality, higher electricity costs, and rising food insecurity.
Despite the controversial provisions, supporters like House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith argue that the bill directly addresses the concerns of working-class voters, pointing specifically to the targeted tax relief components as potential long-term positives. Yet, expert observers remain skeptical of any such electoral payoff.
In response to widespread partisan condemnation, Trump has openly dismissed Democrats’ criticisms as purely partisan animosity directed at him personally, stating bluntly during remarks in Iowa that Democrats opposed the bill “because they hated Trump,” adding defiantly, “but I hate them, too.”
