CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten warned on Tuesday that President Donald Trump will likely face direct blame from the American public should a recession occur within the next year.
Enten, speaking with CNN host Kate Bolduan, emphasized recent polling data showing the clear majority of Americans—52% according to a CNBC survey—would hold Trump significantly responsible for an economic downturn during the coming 12 months. In contrast, only 32% of those surveyed said they would attribute little or no blame to the president if a recession were to occur.
Referring to Trump’s repeated attempts at placing blame elsewhere, including assertions that former President Joe Biden had set policies paving the way to economic trouble, Enten stressed that such arguments appeared unlikely to resonate broadly. “If Donald Trump believes he can somehow escape blame, I’m here to provide a reality check,” Enten asserted.
He went on to highlight market instability caused by Trump’s tariff policies, noting the significant decline in the S&P 500. According to Enten, Trump’s administration has overseen the steepest drop ever recorded at this juncture in a presidency since the creation of the index in 1957. “No other elected president at this stage has come close,” Enten said, pointing out that the closest comparison was former President George W. Bush, whose administration saw a 7% drop in the S&P 500 during a comparable period in 2001.
Additionally, Enten mentioned recent analyses from major financial entities—including Goldman Sachs, Reuters, JPMorgan, and Polymarket—that now estimate the probability of a recession within the next year to be between 45% and 60%. “We are essentially looking at a 50-50 chance of recession,” Enten told CNN. He contrasted this current forecast sharply against earlier periods of Trump’s presidency, when predictions indicated minimal recession risk.
“The data is clear,” Enten concluded. “If a recession does materialize, the American public is poised to place accountability squarely on Trump’s shoulders—and the numbers demonstrate he won’t easily avoid responsibility.”
