After the market close on Wednesday, Nvidia will report its first-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings, covering the period ending April 27. Much of the industry’s attention is fixed on how new U.S. semiconductor export restrictions might influence Nvidia’s global chip business and future revenue guidance. Yet some analysts believe other factors in the earnings report could overshadow these regulatory concerns.
Kevin Cook, senior equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research and a longtime Nvidia analyst, emphasizes that investors should focus closely on Nvidia’s introduction and delivery of the GB200 NVL72 hardware, a cutting-edge, single-rack exascale computer which began shipping in February. Each GB200 system contains 72 GPUs and carries a price tag of approximately $3 million. While initial sentiment toward the product was highly optimistic, confidence stumbled significantly in late January due to market disruptions surrounding the introduction of DeepSeek, causing analysts to slash their delivery forecasts.
Since this quarter represents the first period of significant GB200 unit shipments, Cook notes that it remains unclear precisely how strong customer interest will be. He speculates that if CEO Jensen Huang announces expected deliveries in the neighborhood of 10,000 units for the next quarter—equaling roughly $30 billion in value—the news would significantly exceed current market expectations. However, Cook predicts a more cautious number closer to fewer than 5,000 units.
How enterprises approach adoption of this latest AI technology is central to Nvidia’s near-term financial outlook. Specifically, whether businesses will continually upgrade their AI infrastructure at the rising pace technology firms release new hardware remains a critical unknown. If corporate demand mirrors consumer tech behavior—constant upgrades similar to annual smartphone rollouts—the implications could be transformative for Nvidia. Cook highlights this strategic question as pivotal, yet still unresolved.
Cook acknowledges there will likely be short-term fluctuations in Nvidia’s share price dependent on the company’s commentary on export restrictions to China. Nevertheless, he argues that such movements will not fundamentally dent Nvidia’s long-term valuation or ongoing market strength compared to GB200 sales figures.
Remarkably, Nvidia’s stock has already demonstrated resilience following earlier shockwaves from export control announcements, bouncing back swiftly after significant declines. Cook points out that very few companies maintain such a strong competitive position capable of shrugging off geopolitical turbulence. Despite potential tightening of restrictions targeting Chinese exports, Nvidia appears well-equipped to offset those pressures by expanding its footprint elsewhere. Already selling to all major hyperscale customers globally, Nvidia is notably positioned to leverage emerging opportunities, such as recent high-profile AI projects in the Middle East.
Looking ahead, Cook views Nvidia’s narrative around GB200 NVL72 deliveries as essential. If the outlook for shipments proves robust or even exceptional for the coming quarters, minor fluctuations in immediate quarterly earnings will have limited influence. In his view, momentum in enterprise AI equipment demand remains the strongest indicator of Nvidia’s continued growth trajectory beyond any regulatory headwinds.
